HighLine Insights

Commencement-season reflections on three decades in the workforce. Hard truths about shifting power in labor markets, why work/life balance is grey rather than black-and-white, and the compounding value of networking and intellectual humility.

Special Edition, Part 2 of 2. If the packer tier is bleeding losses and the cow-calf tier is at records, who is collecting the consumer's beef dollar? The USDA Economic Research Service Meat Price Spreads dataset shows the wholesale-to-retail beef spread has roughly quadrupled in nominal terms since 2000, from $0.94 per pound to $3.88 per pound through April 2026 YTD. The retail tier is itself concentrated, with the top five United States grocery chains controlling roughly 48 percent of food-at-home sales, and pass-through from wholesale to retail is empirically asymmetric. This issue makes the case that the DOJ inquiry is pointed at the wrong tier of the supply chain.

Special Edition, Part 1 of 2. The DOJ has opened a second antitrust probe of the Big Four beef packers in five years. The SEC filings show ten quarters of packer beef-segment losses. The cow-calf cohort the investigation purports to defend is posting record margins. The data point to the wrong tier of the supply chain.

Reading between the lines of Q1 earnings. Tyson posted a $202M quarterly adjusted operating loss, McDonald's and Shake Shack reported beef prices up double digits, and BLS pegged Meat, Poultry, and Fish CPI up 5.6% year over year. Then US Foods reported total food cost inflation at 1%. This issue digs into how the USFD procurement team pulled that off, what McDonald's pivot toward chicken means for hamburger demand on the other side of the cattle rebuild, and why a $1.06B aggregate Tyson beef segment loss complicates the antitrust narrative.

Fire up the grill. The 2026 grilling season is shaping up to be exceptional, with backyard parties replacing road trips, the World Cup in North American time zones, and the 250th anniversary of the American Revolution all converging to drive demand. The question for protein buyers is whether they are positioned for it. This issue links to the Spring Special Report Pricing the Plate: A Buyer's Guide to Grilling Season 2026 with current pricing across beef, pork, and chicken, five years of holiday-window patterns, weather and supply fundamentals, and the procurement actions buyers should take before Memorial Day.

Ground beef just hit $6.70 a pound while chicken breast and pork chops sit at $4.17 and $4.18. Consumers are paying a 60 percent premium for beef and not blinking. The traditional ceiling that high prices cure high prices appears to be broken. This issue breaks down whether we are witnessing a structural paradigm shift or watching a global bubble inflate in real time.

Beijing just restructured global ag trade. China is rewriting the rules of global protein and grain trade, simultaneously protecting domestic producers with beef tariffs, building poultry export capacity, culling excess sow herds, and slashing corn imports by 91%. This is not a cyclical adjustment. It is a coordinated restructuring of how China produces, imports, and sources food.

This week's feature explores the critical distinction between market noise and actionable signals for procurement leaders. Using the Middle East energy crisis as an example of noise and China's 58% growth in chicken exports as a structural signal, the piece argues that the best operators build positions on fundamentals rather than reacting to headlines. It closes with three stress-test questions every protein sourcing team should be asking right now about cost exposure, freight volatility, and origin diversification.

Last week we officially crossed over from Winter to Spring, and it couldn’t come sooner after a rough northeast winter. So, on the theme of a new season and a new beginning, I am excited to share some fun updates to HighLine

Today's newsletter focuses on the South American agricultural powerhouse challenging, and in some cases beating, the United States’ historical dominance in global markets. In 2026, Brazil’s place as an agricultural superpower is as controversial as saying the sky is blue. However, this was not always the case. In fact, in 1999 I think most Americans were more concerned about Y2K or learning “What is the Matrix”. A lot has happened in the mere 25 years since, so let's start with some data that caught my attention.

Welcome back to Issue #2 of HighLine Insights. As promised, today's newsletter focuses on two critical dynamics shaping our industry: The Trump Administration 2.0 has brought with it a notably aggressive approach to international relations, call it economic imperialism with the quiet parts said out loud. While most are focused on tariffs, there's one country whose position in global protein markets I will be paying close attention to in 2026.